ISRAEL-IRAN WAR/ “A possible military coup in Tehran to keep the country united”
The war against Iran has become a war to overthrow the Khamenei regime, replacing it with the army, minorities or a pro-Western executive.
Israel wants to redesign the Middle East and it does so in the way that suits it best: by attacking Iran relentlessly. To carry out his plan, however, Netanyahu needs US super bombs (including the GBU-57A/B MOP Massive Ordnance Penetrator) that could render the enemy's most protected nuclear sites unusable. The real objective of the military operation, however, now seems to be the fall of the regime, whose void could be filled by resorting to militias that are led by the country's minorities, or, explains Camille Eid , a Lebanese journalist living in Italy, a contributor to Avvenire , through the army, which would opt for an internal coup, presenting it as the way to keep Iran united and avoid worse scenarios. While waiting for the official confirmation of the US entry into the war, Trump 's words seem to leave little room for diplomatic logic: "unconditional surrender", "my patience is over", "last ultimatum", are expressions that leave little room for solutions other than those that involve even more violent attacks on Iran. Even if, as usual, the US president insinuates some doubts about his real intentions.
Whether Trump decides to go to war directly or not, does his demand for unconditional surrender amount to an announcement of all-out war?
The decision to go to war has been made, although not yet communicated. But the Americans were already contributing to the conflict not only by helping the Israelis defend themselves from Iranian missiles, but also by supporting them with their logistics to ensure the refueling of the fighters that attacked Iran. Not to mention the intelligence work. Now Israel needs bunker buster bombs to destroy the nuclear plant in Fordo. The Americans will use them, having already moved aircraft carriers into the area and who in any case have their bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, which enjoy a sort of extraterritoriality.
At that point, could the Iranians attack US bases in these countries?
The United States warned not to touch their soldiers and, 24 hours before the attack, allowed the relatives of the soldiers to leave the bases. For now, Iran has not moved in this direction and has not even mobilized all the factions, the pro-Iranian acronyms scattered between Iraq and Lebanon, to avoid making the situation worse. I do not know how long the war will last, but the Israelis have demonstrated a capacity beyond expectations: they have even bombed in the area of Mashhad, in the far north-east of Iran, and thanks to their espionage they have hit Iranian scientists and commanders.
What is the strategy that guides the Israelis?
Netanyahu started with a single objective: the destruction of nuclear power. But then, when he announced that he had neutralized Iran's nuclear capabilities, he went ahead anyway. A sign that perhaps he had something else in mind. The objective seems to be to redraw the cards of the Middle East. After having hit all the groups close to Iran, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel decided to go to the source and take it out on Tehran. Contacts are already underway on both the Israeli and European sides with Kurdish, Arab, and Baluch opposition groups, who could launch a final assault on the regime. This heralds a dismemberment of Iran. The country is multi-ethnic: Persians make up just over 50% of the population, and Khamenei himself is Azeri. In short, they are playing their cards to overthrow the regime. It is no coincidence that Trump has asked for Iran's unconditional surrender. On the other hand, out of 16 high military positions in the country, 8 have been reshuffled or are vacant. The Israelis have hit the top, especially among the Pasdaran.
How does Iran fare in terms of military capabilities?
I don't see a great intensity in the launching of missiles towards Israel: on the first day they sent 200, in the following nights the number dropped to 30. They should still have 1,600 missiles, but at this point we have to ask ourselves where they are and whether they have kept them to use them only later.
The Israeli attack, therefore, is in fact aimed at regime change. But to give power to whom?
For a popular uprising, an armed force is needed to support it. It could be that an internal coup by the army occurs. In 1979, it was the military that gave the Shah a push, taking a position alongside Khomeini. They would do it to save what could be saved, to ensure that everything ends without further destruction, maintaining at least the unity of the country. The groups that are part of the opposition often operate in Baluchistan, near Basra, they move locally. Some, however, also support the Shah's son, Reza Cyrus Pahlavi.
Why was there an acceleration of the attack: the nuclear talks were going nowhere?
Trump changed his mind about the negotiations even on the same day: first he said he was close to an agreement, then he said he didn't have great prospects of success.
Does the US agree to bring about the fall of the regime?
So far they have used the Iranian threat to exercise a sort of blackmail against the Gulf countries, which in fact have spent mountains of money on billion-dollar contracts with the USA, relating to military means (aircraft, for example) and otherwise, to have Washington on their side. It is the same money that the Americans then used to finance Israel. If Iran were to become pro-Western, it would no longer be a bogeyman for these countries. The United States, in this sense, almost has an interest in maintaining a regime like the current one, even if very weakened, to continue to have this influence over the Gulf. On the other side, however, there is Israel that wants to be the only regional power.
What does Israel really want?
We are witnessing the birth of a new Middle East . In Netanyahu's vision, anything is possible: the Israeli prime minister sees a new regime in Iran allied with the West. Now Pakistan is becoming alarmed: Netanyahu himself had said in the past that once he was finished with Tehran he would move on to Islamabad.
(Paul Rossetti)
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